2026 MLB SEASON — LIVE DATA
Tycho uses multi-factor Elo ratings, live pitcher data, and bullpen tracking to predict MLB game outcomes — validated across 315+ games.
THE TYCHO MODEL
All 30 MLB teams rated dynamically from game history. K=20, with comeback bonuses, blown-lead penalties, and bullpen Elo boosts baked in.
ERA, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9 confidence-weighted by innings pitched. Starter tiers from Fire 🔥 to Cold 🧊 — applied to every prediction.
Quality score (save%, ERA, WHIP) combined with real 3-day fatigue brackets. Fresh or overworked — the model knows the difference.
How each team performs vs left and right-handed pitching. OPS splits applied automatically to every win probability calculation.
Coors Field +1.5 runs. Petco Park -0.3. Run totals adjusted for every stadium — because context is everything in baseball.
Model probability vs Vegas implied probability. High-confidence picks flagged automatically at 60%+ ML, 2.0+ off the O/U line.
PROOF OF CONCEPT
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