2026 MLB SEASON — LIVE DATA

The model that
beats Vegas.

Tycho uses multi-factor Elo ratings, live pitcher data, and bullpen tracking to predict MLB game outcomes — validated across 315+ games.

62.5% ML ACCURACY
315+ GAMES TRACKED
55.2% O/U vs VEGAS LINE
30 TEAMS RATED

THE TYCHO MODEL

Built on math, not gut feelings.

📊

Elo Ratings

All 30 MLB teams rated dynamically from game history. K=20, with comeback bonuses, blown-lead penalties, and bullpen Elo boosts baked in.

Pitcher Analysis

ERA, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9 confidence-weighted by innings pitched. Starter tiers from Fire 🔥 to Cold 🧊 — applied to every prediction.

💪

Bullpen Tracking

Quality score (save%, ERA, WHIP) combined with real 3-day fatigue brackets. Fresh or overworked — the model knows the difference.

🎯

Hitting Splits

How each team performs vs left and right-handed pitching. OPS splits applied automatically to every win probability calculation.

🏟️

Park Factors

Coors Field +1.5 runs. Petco Park -0.3. Run totals adjusted for every stadium — because context is everything in baseball.

📈

Value Signals

Model probability vs Vegas implied probability. High-confidence picks flagged automatically at 60%+ ML, 2.0+ off the O/U line.

PROOF OF CONCEPT

The numbers don't lie.

62.5%
Moneyline Accuracy
197 of 315 games correct
55.2%
O/U vs Vegas Line
16 of 29 totals correct
60%+
High Confidence Filter
Picks above this threshold flagged for Pro members

MEMBERSHIP

Pick your plan.

Free
$0/mo
  • ✓ Yesterday's results
  • ✓ 2 picks per week
  • ✓ Power rankings
  • ✓ Games log
  • ✗ Full daily picks
  • ✗ O/U signals
  • ✗ Run line predictions
  • ✗ Early access
Get started free
Pro Member
$19/mo
  • ✓ Everything in Picks
  • ✓ Run line predictions
  • ✓ 6am early access
  • ✓ Full model breakdown
  • ✓ Pitcher Elo detail
  • ✓ Priority support
  • ✓ NFL & NBA (coming 2026)
  • ✓ Early feature access